Jabes Twitter Musings - July 8th
The Promise of Online Education
If you think back all the way to the last time we mind-spoke, I highlighted certain sectors which have had consistently rising costs over the last three decades. These “slow” sectors have evaded software's kiss of death.
One of those sectors was education. According to Peter Yang’s research, education makes up 6% of GDP.
At this rate, a college education will cost >$1 Million dollars by the time 90’s kids’ kids graduate high school. That does not seem sustainable, even if crypto moons.
If the purpose of a college degree is to get a good job, then something needs to change. The ROI on traditional education is heading in the other direction with those rising costs and stagnant quality.
You may be wondering, why is the cost of education going up even though you can learn virtually everything in more depth online? Doesn’t the internet reduce costs because of free distribution? This doesn’t pass the sniff test.
Rather than focus on why the costs are increasing, let’s instead look at some alternative solutions software is enabling for a much lower cost.
When people think of low cost online learning, they typically bring up one option right away: MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses). Bringing up MOOCs is like bringing up AOL. It was fresh for a time but that time has passed.
MOOCs are primarily self-paced and rely on the learner's motivation to power through and stick with it. Sadly, the data is in, and it doesn’t look like MOOCs are the answer. According to MIT, MOOC completions rates are just 3 to 6 percent. But if MOOCs aren't the answer, then what is?
We are beginning to see a rise in more internet native education. The darling of the times is currently under the name of Cohort-Based Courses (CBC). What are Cohort-Based Courses? Let’s let Ryan Gum give us a one tweet summary:
And here’s a kicker chart from a16z to hammer home the difference between MOOCs and CBCs:
I have participated in a CBC called Reforge, and it gets me excited about the future of online learning and education. Reforge was a 6 week program that cost $3k (luckily I got my company to fund it!). One of the courses, the Growth Series, was focused on systems and frameworks for scaling software products. It was a great opportunity to spend time directly with some of the key people I've followed on Twitter for years. These operators shared unique stories from their own experiences scaling Pinterest, Uber and Slack. The best part was meeting and working with other people in similar roles facing similar challenges at similar companies.
CBCs are a positive step in the right direction of solving Bloom’s Two sigma problem which, “demonstrated that learners involved in individual or small-group tutoring performed two standard deviations above the level achieved by students in a traditional class.”
Here are 5 reasons why I think CBCs are effective from my own personal experience:
Students are put into groups organized by skill level rather than grade level.
A lot of time is spent reviewing content, and new ideas are introduced slowly over time. This helps build the “mastery learning” muscle since you don’t graduate modules until you truly understand it.
CBCs are typically taught by operators or subject-matter experts and thus resemble high quality “tutors.” Having good domain knowledge was key in Bloom’s study.
Courses are interactive, so teachers can ask folks to think out loud, shape behaviors and give feedback in real time.
Motivation is everywhere because you are part of a community.
Greg Isenberg summed up this new paradigm of online education in a tweet:
But CBCs are not the end state. They are just a step in the right direction. They are effective because they are native to the internet. Geographic location means virtually nothing. They form around applied skills and interests.
I believe the true way to solve Bloom’s Two Sigma problem is to pair CBCs with new online learning software. One example of this online software was developed by a company called Rhyme.
Rhyme was acquired by a major player in the education space, Coursera. Coursera was already trying to solve Bloom's Two Sigma problem by implementing Mastery Learning. They use in-video questions that turn passive watching of videos into an active learning experience, as well as actionable feedback tailored to the learner's response on quizzes.
They scooped up Rhyme to bolster their guided projects offering. Software like Rhyme can help CBCs go to the next level.
You can do pre-recorded instruction with live monitoring which allows you to drop in and out and help students get unstuck.
Everything is pre-configured in a cloud desktop so there is no nasty installation or setup process.
The focus is on real-world projects that develop contextually relevant skills. This creates a portfolio of solved problems so learners can display to potential employers what they can do.
The side-by-side instruction helps the learning go beyond what folks can do on their own
If we pair this new software with CBCs led by subject-matter experts from all over the world, we are going to empower kids who can’t afford a $1M college education to acquire skills to make a nice living for themselves and their families.
I also believe lack of community is the biggest reason why homeschooling isn't more common. That is why I implore you to keep an eye on companies like Outschool.
Now don’t get me wrong, top universities aren't going anywhere. But if you are seeking skill training, then there are alternative ways to level up or get a good job that don't cost an arm and a leg. The question will be just how much we can scale these and how many industries can fit this new online education mold and how much courage modern students will have to invest their time in a new form of learning. I for one will be following along closely.
Cheers,
Jabe